February 17th., 2010

Situation gets complicated for Chavez

I am 55 years old and have been President for 11 years. During the next 11 years I promise to take care of myself a bit more, because God willing I´ll be 66 years old and 22 years as President. And for the following 11 years, I don t even want to think about it since then I’ll be 77 years old and 33 as President. Don t you think that would be a long time?”, has asked Chavez during a recent meeting of his supporters. It is the repetition of what has been raised in various occasions.  In one of the recently aired Hello President program he spoke about the three pending stages in the strengthening of the revolutionary process: ten years for the first, ten for the second and another ten for the third.

He has commemorated the 18^th anniversary of February 4^th 1992; naming the coup he led on that date, as Day of National Dignity, and has promised to commemorate the bicentenary of Bolivar s death by making December 17 of 2030 a historical date.  Since his election in 1998, it is obvious that his objective is to maintain himself in the power indefinitely. An analyst affirms that since his return to the power, after overcoming the civic military rebellion of 2002, the political, economical and social situation is getting dramatically complicated. Chavez understands the importance of the crisis, since the signs of general uneasiness cannot be concealed. In addition to the middle class repudiation, there are also those unsatisfied charismas who take part in almost daily street demonstrations which are hardly the object of police violence. The resignation of the vice president and of the minister of Defense, followed as well by weekly changes of ministers, discomfort in dense areas of the Armed Forces, unexpected cancellation of the trip to Quito to attend the Unasur meeting, all of this has Independent media agreeing that there is a volcano about to erupt inside the regime. Worry and anxiety are easily felt in his gesture and speech during the frequent simultaneous TV transmissions that are as often as two to three times a day, also during unusual hours. Opinion polls are one of his greatest concerns. In the Government’s poll of the end of January, which numbers have been leaked to the press, 72 % reject re election in 2010 and 88 % reject the culmination of his term of office beyond 2021? An overwhelming majority is against perpetual presidency and the communist model that Chavez extols.

Analysts attribute the scenario to the concurrence of new factors that happened in the past weeks: currency devaluation, water supply problems and the energy crisis, that Chavez has admitted as extremely serious, to the point that the energy service is suspended for several hours in the interior of the country and exorbitant rates are set for the capital, specially for the industry, malls and residential areas. Businessmen announced that the rates are forcing them to paralyze their activities and in Caracas only wealthy people will be able to pay for the announced invoicing. According to economists, the devaluation will result in speeding up inflation which is currently at 35 %, the highest in Latin America. The Economist foresees for 2010, a drop of 3.4% in the gross domestic product (GDP) with obvious effects in the unemployment rate. Water is being rationed and often suspended for several days. According to the opposition, huge difficulties are appearing before Chavez and his aspiration to maintain himself in the power indefinitely.

THE DRAMATIC ENERGY CRISIS

Chavez has admitted the extreme seriousness of the energy crisis in an unexpected TV appearance, where he announced the setting up of a higher command to fight off troubles. It is made up by several ministers, who have mostly taken turns in office for the past 11 years. The emergency decree published on the following day authorizes minister Ali Rodriguez Araque to announced by means of exception “ very special measures that he considers appropriate to guarantee the energy supply. “ Chavez states that “if someone is to blame for the energy crisis it is the escualidos who governed for 50 years and did nothing so that the country could have appropriate electrical structure.” One thing is certain, during the second half of the 20^th century, Venezuela was the Latin American country that had projected and executed the best electrical development plan and that its government had thrown away the existing projects necessary to keep the achievement of the system in optimum levels and the consumption projections caused by population growth. They recalled that it was precisely Rodriguez Araque, who was in charge of the Ministry of Energy at the beginning of the regime, the main responsible for not paralyzing the execution of the plan found when he received the office. The ex minister, Jose Curiel, refuted Chavez’s statements that said that democratic governments had not done enough to improve the electric infrastructure. He said that out of 99 existing dams in the country, 81 were built between 1960 and 1998, several for electric production. In 11 years, Chavez has hardly begun the construction of two dams, and has not even finished them. According to Curiel, the cause of the crisis, is due to precarious investments in maintenance, to the point that in the last four years barely 30 % of the 5500 MW that were supposed to be incorporated to the national network has been added, along with ten delayed or paralyzed projects.

He pointed out two hydroelectric power stations and four thermoelectric stations, whose construction delay is evident. In Barinas, the state where the President is native of, the unfinished hydroelectric power station has not been capable to start generating energy.

According to government experts as well as opponents and independents, they all agree that Venezuela could have more than 40 % of its electric energy disconnected from one day to the next, “when the water necessary to move the turbines of Guri´s hydroelectric complex, the biggest in the country, will not be sufficient and which reservoir level is dropping at a rate of 12 centimeters per day”.  Experts and official reports have warned that the complex’s turbines will stop when the level of the dam reaches the critical elevation of 240 meters above sea level and could stay that way for months. In a December’s report, the State owned National Electric Corporation has warned “that we could be facing a severe energy crisis in 120 days, bringing us to a national energy standstill.” The emergency has forced to government to put in place reduction timescales in the whole country. The reductions turned out so disliked, that the government suspended them in Caracas, but raised the rates in such a way that in numerous commercial and industrial centers closing could be the only alternative, and turns out too expensive for at least 80 % of the middle class of residential areas. Economists think that the reduction may cause a negative impact of 20 % on the gross domestic product (GDP). Businessmen warn that they will be forced to close their business, which will generate effects in the area of supply of consumer goods and employment.  “A potential disaster that does not have an immediate solution and will impose tremendous sacrifice“. The matter represents a difficult political impact for the government for the purposes of the parliamentary elections of September.

CUBA INVADED VENEZUELA WITHOUT FIRING A SHOT

Chavez announced the arrival of major Ramiro Valdez, vice president of the state council of Cuba, in charge of a committee of electric experts. Valdez’s visit has been the object of rejection and criticism by the opposition, whose spokespersons reminded that he lead Castro’s repressive machine during 25 years and that as chief of the G2 he commanded executions and in the Ministry of Interior he was the author of laws against dissidence, among which is the Indice de Peligrosidad Social , resulting that suspects who threaten against the system are confined in prison. Chavez said that Valdez had credentials to advice with the energy crisis being president of the Group Industrial para la Electronica. He was answered that he is currently Minister of Communications and Computer Science and there are right to suspects that this is the real matter of his advising.

According to an ex employee of the office that controls the national electric network,  between 2008 and 2009, Cuban technicians have installed 30 electric power stations in several areas of the country, which resulted to be of old technology and short lasting, that “ operate on high cost because the burn a lot of fuel “. He said that the Cuban power stations are purchased in other markets and sold to Venezuela. A leader of the opposition has reported that in a recent transaction, Chavez has obliged himself to finance a fuel power station in Holguin for the amount of $ 169.96 millions. “ The new power station in Holguin will produce energy similar to the rationing that is being impose to Caracas”. An expert has stated as an interesting paradox: the Venezuelan economy has fallen by 2.3% while Cuba’s has grown between 1 % and 1.7 % and CEPAL who handles numbers of 2009, foresees a growth of 2 % for Venezuela compare to · % for Cuba.

The International press shows special interest in what is happening. El Pais of Madrid in its editorial entitled Chavez recurre a Cuba expresses concern for Chavez determination to put himself under the dependence of Havana. For The Economist, with Chavez in power, Cuba has reached its goal to invade Venezuela without firing one shot. Newspapers from both continents express their surprise to the turn down of the Colombian offer to supply energy to overcome the electricity shortage. The Colombian minister of Mines and Energy has said “I think that Venezuelan people are going through a difficult situation due to the rationing and we are offering collaboration.” Caracas answer was given by the recently named vice president, Elias Jaua, who stated that the government is busy and working to create its own electric system, “and for this reason the Colombian offer is not necessary.”

The international opinion criticizes Chavez more and more every day. The European Parliament considers that he pursues control and silence of the media, decreases of freedom of speech and right to information, without respect for political pluralism and ideological. It points out that the government infringes systematically the Constitution and all legal order. It states that the country is not fulfilling the international agreements that command respect for human rights. It is not enough to allege popular support. The democratic legitimacy is achieved in practice, obeying principles and values of democracy. European parliamentarians synthesize in its resolution what the world thinks about Chavez, putting in highlight that the rejection to his regime is national as much as it is international.