July 30th., 2008

Chávez In Spain

Under a strong summer sun,  in front of the Marivent Palace, Juan Carlos, “due to discipline and service vocation” (ABC), greeted Chávez, who appeared at the meeting one hour late.  There were hugs, and the King, flaring charming humor, gave Chávez a t-shirt with the famous slogan “why don’t you shut up” as a present.  The encounter was a very “pleasant” one, pursuant to Chávez, so much that he “cancelled” the incident at the Iberoamerican Summit in Chile.  Possibly the King did not ignore that in Aló Presidente, Chávez, just a few days back, had expressed the following:  “It will give me pleasure to hug him, but Juan Carlos, you know that I will not shut up”.  He made Rodriguez Zapatero wait on him only for 40 minutes, who greeted him at the doors of La Moncloa.  The meeting between the mandataries was brief, since before lunch, there was a press conference wherein they announced that Venezuela will sell 10,000 oil barrels daily, at a cost of US$ 100, and that the market price difference would be paid with technology transfer.  Zapatero seemed very satisfied with the “re encounter” of the two countries and the reactivation of the agreements with PDVSA and Repsol so that the Spanish company increases its production and reserve levels in the Venezuelan fields.  He used the “scurrilous“  term to qualify Chávez, making reference to the interview he granted to TVE, wherein he manifested that Venezuela will guarantee Spain the supply of oil for one hundred years and that the European directive regarding the return of immigrants, is not a motive of confrontation but of a search for solutions.  Chávez had announced retaliations against the nations that would apply such directive.  Simultaneously with his visit, in Caracas it was agreed that the Colon Stroll change its name to be called the Indigenous Resistance Stroll.

Venezuelan personalities, representing various sectors saluted the normalization of the bilateral relation, warning that Chávez’  visit should not underestimate that the country is in a situation that is characterized by reiterated violations to the Constitutional legality; rising politization of the armed forces; intent to corner the education system; an unmeasured arms race that unbalances the regional balance; a confrontation and increasing intervention in the internal affairs of other States; a scandalous corruption; renewed efforts to impose a totalitarian model and an ostensible communication hegemony.  Spokespersons of the Spanish community resident in Venezuela declared that the Spanish government can not ignore the opinion of one million immigrants and children of immigrants that have not rested denouncing what is happening in the country, and pointing out the causes that have obliged tens of thousands to return to Spain.  Carlos Malamud, the most qualified Spanish analyst regarding Latin America, stated that the encounters with Chávez and the King and Zapatero should not be construed as a definite step to normalize relations, since the explosive and unpredictable nature of the Venezuelan ruler does not guarantee anything and more so when there are still itchy problems in the agenda such as the presence of ETA terrorists in Venezuela, who benefit from the government.  The Spanish analyst added:  “Normalization in the relation, yes.  Definite and permanent advance, this is something that we still have to see and only time will be able to confirm it or deny it”.

 THE TRIP TO RUSSIA

The active cooperation between Moscow and Caracas “is becoming one of the key factors of regional security in Latin America”, as declared by President Dmitri Medveded, upon greeting Chávez in his sixth visit to Russia.  In Moscow, Chávez offered a press conference, wherein he confirmed that they had discussed new weapons acquisitions and that the military cooperation between both countries was “going ever so swiftly”.  Upon reiterating his critics regarding the presence of the IV North American fleet in the Caribbean, he stated that to the contrary of the US Marines, Russian military units would not be rejected.  “If a Russian fleet arrives through the Caribbean, we will hoist flags, play drums and sing hymns, because they are our allies, with which we are united by the same vision of the world… Russia has enough capacity to move ships and airplanes…if they appear in Venezuela, it would not be odd”.  Chávez emphasized that the new Russian Head of State “will be a guarantee of our security and stability”.  The Venezuelan independent press construed that this is reference a to the Russian veto, if in the future, the Security Council discloses what was revealed in the Raúl Reyes computers regarding collaboration with the Colombian terrorists.

The Russian press speculates over the Kremlin´s  response to the US anti missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.  One of the newspapers that covered the press conference with Chávez stated that he had basically affirmed his agreement with Medveded for the installation of the military Russian base in Venezuela.  Komsomolkaya Pravda (KP) published a graphic image that shows the location of the base in the northeastern region. Chávez, from Lisbon, declared that this was a mistake on the part of the Russian interpreter used in the press conference, but the Moscow media insist that the “adequate answer”, announced by Medveded was one of the issues discussed in the meeting.  An analyst of PK writes that “ Russia does not foresee bases in Venezuela for the moment, but if the US insists on installing an anti missile shield in Europe, Moscow would think about this option seriously”.  Chávez tinted Lisbon´s  explanation in a letter to Fidel Castro on account of July 26, whose fax was published by Granma.  He comments in his article “Maquiavelo´s  Strategy”, wherein the Cuban leader declares that there is no need to give any explanations nor apologize to Washington.  “I totally agree with you, says Chávez, we don’t have to give any explanations to the Yankee Empire, least of all apologize”.  The Venezuelan analysts coincide in that the confrontation between Russia and the US increases, and that Chávez passes from the strident anti American rhetoric to a dangerous variable of interference in the tensions of both potencies.  The controversy over the Russian bases took away importance to the negotiations with Russia and Byelorussia to acquire T-90C tanks, anti air defense systems Tor-MI, a fleet of iluyshin and electric-diesel subs.  According to the newspaper Kommersant, the Russian suppliers were alarmed since Chávez wishes to buy the arms on credit, but a specialist from the firm RusEnergy argued that Venezuela is a natural ally of Moscow, not only in the military environment, but also in the economic one, with particular emphasis in the energy sector.  “Venezuela is a country with many perspectives.  It is not discarded that Russian oil companies occupy the space left behind in the Venezuelan oil fields by Exxon Mobil, Conoco, etc.”. The agency Interfax esteems that the amount for war equipment acquisitions by Venezuela reaches US$ 30,000 Million.  Venezuelan analysts wonder if Chávez will continue with his arms race policy, by way of the future sales of oil.  BBC Mundo, with its traditional objectivity, has been wondering:  What is Chávez´ objective in his project of converting Venezuela in an emerging military potency?  Carlos Alberto Montaner writes the following:  “It is an error not to take Chávez seriously due to his histrionic character.  He is an armed clown and dangerous”. 

CHÁVEZ:  LATIN AMERICAN PROBLEM

After finishing the European tour, which, according to Chávez, places him as an important actor in world politics, he announced that there is receptivity regarding his proposal for an alliance of the South Atlantic.  “Portugal and Spain – he stated, along with Venezuela, Argentina, Brazil, countries of West Africa and the South Atlantic South America, could comprise the alliance”.  Questioned about the re launching of the Tri Continental Union, proposed in the 1960´s  by the Che Guevara, he assured that the idea is alive and that now it would be a Quatri Continental of Europe, Latin America, Africa and Asia.  He announced a future celebration of a Summit in Caracas to give impulse to the project.  The reactions go from those who think that these are only fantasies, to those who regret that the money from oil is destined to Chávez eagerness for international leadership, abandoning the grave problems that affect the conditions and quality of life of those who live in the country.  Norman Bailey, president of the Institute for Global Economic Growth, sustains that Chávez destines US$ 33,000 Million to programs directed to influence in the politics of other countries, specially Latin American countries.  He points out examples of interference in Argentina, Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Paraguay and Nicaragua, and financial aid to the FARC, ETA, HAMAS or Hezbolah.  Bailey, professor of the Institute of World Politics, offered his expert opinion to a Committee of the US Congress, and called attention to the ever more growing presence of Iran in Venezuela, a country that, in his opinion, “represents a threat to national security”.

In the last Aló Presidente, Chávez fustigated the Colombian Minister of Defense, for having revealed that one of the participants in the rescue of the hostages simulated to work for the Venezuelan Telesur.  Uribe has requested moderation to this Ministers, without mentioning Santos.  In Bogotá it is admitted that Santos says the things that Uribe can not say, for the interest in maintaining bi national commerce.  Chávez´ soreness with the Colombian Minister, a candidate to succeed Uribe, goes way back, since Santos has been adamant in pointing out Chávez as “a serious danger to Colombia”.

In Bolivia, the main theme of the campaign over the revocation recall is the Venezuelan interference.  On July 20, a helicopter crashed near the vicinity of the Cochabamba mounts, leaving four Venezuelan military dead, and as per declarations by Evo, he saved his life miraculously, since he used the chopper for his displacements during the campaign.  Venezuelan technicians are in charge of the Venezuelan electoral poll and work as advisors of the campaign, as denounced by the opposition.  The Venezuelan oil dollars, delivered directly by the Embassy, as requested by Evo to avoid “bureaucratic problems”, are distributed amongst the communities during the electoral activities of the President.  The last scandal took place in the Senate, wherein evidence was presented that the Venezuelan Embassy paid for the cars used in an attack with dynamite against a dissenting TV channel.  The La Prensa newspaper in Nicaragua, revealed that for the events celebrating the Sandinista revolution, representatives of the FARC arrived in a plane from PDVSA, who possibly met with Chávez, who was visiting Managua before leaving for Europe.  In Paraguay, the opposition denounces that Chávez financed Lugo´s  campaign, whose Chancellor declared that his government will maintain tight links with the Venezuelan government, “with whom they feel politically identified”.  In El Salvador, the analysts affirm that Chávez´ oil dollars will be determining for the possible triumph of Farabundo Marti.  Jorge Castañeda, ex Mexican Chancellor, thinks that in Latin America, the governors that do not bow before Chávez, are becoming fond of his check book or are afraid to confront him.  The Venezuelan dictator seems to be right when he affirms that he is an important actor in the politics of the world.